Current Medal Count, Vancouver Olympics

20 02 2010

This is from the Vancouver Olympics official website. The numbers should update automatically. The figures are for gold, silver, bronze total. My only criticism of the site is that it doesn’t break down the national medal totals in per capita terms. The United States has twice as many medals as Norway, but its population is vastly larger.

USA 6 6 8 20
Norge 5 3 2 10
Tyskland 4 5 4 13
Kanada 4 3 1 8
Korea 3 2 0 5
Schweiz 3 0 1 4
Guld Silver Brons Totalt
1.
.




Last Canadian Veteran of the First World War Dies

20 02 2010

The last Canadian to enlist in the First World War had died at his home in the United States. It is a good time to reflect on the ways in which Canada has changed in the last 90 years. I would suggest that Mr Babcock’s story shows that the changes have, generally speaking, been for the better. Canada went from being a loyal dependency of the British Empire to an independent, prosperous, pacific, and multicultural country.

Now all we need to do to make the transition complete is to abolish the monarchy, the last symbolic vestige of our connection to the Empire for which Mr Babcock and so many other English-speaking Canadians were willing to fight.





Mad Men

18 02 2010

Drama series set in the world of advertising in 1960s New York.See my post on Nostalgianomics

Vodpod videos no longer available.

more about "Mad Men", posted with vodpod





Bliss on Taxation in Canada (Nostalgianomics)

18 02 2010

Michael Bliss, who is one of Canada’s most accomplished historians, has published a piece in the Globe and Mail calling for Canada’s system of taxation to be made more progressive. I really admire Bliss’s work as a historian and he makes an interesting case in this op-ed piece, but there are some ideas lurking in his piece that I cannot let pass without comment.

Bliss writes: “Inequality of compensation has soared in our time, as the rich have become much richer and much less taxed. Higher taxes on high incomes would begin to narrow the immense chasm that has opened up between the über-rich and the ordinary North American. If properly applied, they could put an end to the frustrating debate about the obscene salaries and bonuses that we pay not only to flailing financiers but to mediocre professional athletes.”

There is no such country as North America. Canada and the United States are very different countries when it comes to inequality. One common measure of income inequality is the Gini coefficient.  The most egalitarian society in the world is Denmark, with where the Gini coefficient is 24.7, according to the UN stats. In Canada, the Gini coefficient is 32.6. This makes Canada’s distribution of income somewhat more egalitarian than in France, Australia, the United Kingdom and far more egalitarian than in the United States, where the Gini coefficient is 40.8. Moreover, while the level of inequality in the USA has increased dramatically since the 1970s, it has remained roughly the same in Canada. Anyway, the divergence is partly a function of different economies producing different distributions of pre-tax incomes (there are lots of well-paying jobs for male high-school graduates in Canada) and partly because of different tax regimes (read Geoffrey Hales’s excellent book on this subject). Executive compensation is also lower in Canada than in the USA. My point is that we can’t say that the same trends are at work on both sides of the border.

“From 1945 to the 1960s, the United States and Canada experienced what appears to be a golden age of affluence, growth and, by our standards, increasing social equality.”

The  relatively egalitarian distribution of incomes in the US between the New Deal and the 1973 oil shock was due to a conjunction of factors that simply aren’t present today. Tax policy is just one of them. The world is more globalized (as workers in Flint, Michigan will tell you), the labour movement and the big Chandlerian corporations have declined, technology has automated certain formerly well-paying jobs out of existence, there is more immigration from low-wage countries, and gender roles are massively different. Bliss’s piece reminds me of Paul Krugman’s nostalgia for the relatively egalitarian society of the United States of his childhood. As critics have pointed out, Krugman’s “nostalgianomics” overlooks important flaws of 1950s American society (very limited immigration, women being kept out of a workforce).

We watched an episode of Mad Men last night. Neither I nor my wife would want to live in the society Krugman and Bliss appear to regard as some sort of golden age.

Canada’s egalitarianism is generally a good thing (it makes muggings less common), but it also has some drawbacks that we should acknowledge too. For one thing, it probably makes university students less competitive.  I also suspect that it is one of the reasons why the expected rate of return on investment in a university degree is lower in Canada than in the United States.

Update: I have been asked by a reader to back up my claim that the ROI on a university degree in Canada is lower than in the US. This OECD data shows that the present value of a degree is lower, which certainly suggests that the ROI is lower.

2009 OECD Report on Education, “Education at a Glance” Chart A8.1. Economic returns for an individual obtaining upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education, ISCED 3/4, and for an individual obtaining tertiary education

“The chart depicts the present value of an investment’s future cash flows net of  the initial investment,  discounted by 5% interest rate. Investments in tertiary education generate substantial financial rewards in most OECD countries. Male students in Italy, Portugal and the United States can expect to gain more than USD150 000 over their working lives by investing in tertiary education. The returns for female tertiary students exceed USD 100 000 in Korea and Portugal. With few exceptions, the returns for investing in a tertiary education are higher than for upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education… For males the returns are USD 81 000 compared with USD 40 000 and for females USD 51 000  compared with USD 26 000. Incentives to continue education on a tertiary level are thus strong for males and females in most countries.”

Direct cost Foregone earnings Gross earnings benefits Net present value of a post-secondary degree
Country Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
Australia -2,810 -2,810 -22,021 -22,719 73,492 70,932 49,482 25,782
Austria -2,032 -2,032 -38,001 -36,463 146,283 103,739 62,805 33,435
Belgium -1,441 -1,441 -32,999 -28,338 63,700 91,261 13,659 37,145
Canada -2,161 -2,161 -23,450 -24,386 91,065 71,299 53,918 37,540
Czech Republic -1,722 -1,722 -15,426 -14,635 44,843 50,019 63,524 55,584
Denmark -578 -578 -27,078 -27,534 111,279 82,278 23,587 2,828
Finland -138 -138 -22,955 -22,309 50,777 32,073 10,432 -2,020
France -2,119 -2,119 -30,492 -27,181 41,450 44,826 5,284 8,081
Germany -5,085 -5,085 -27,421 -27,631 51,356 109,920 19,134 32,039
Hungary -577 -577 -15,805 -15,024 38,406 39,545 15,046 19,029
Ireland -599 -599 -29,199 -28,740 66,937 76,038 31,618 35,058
Italy -1,114 -1,114 -35,954 -30,570 89,302 75,509 21,487 30,417
Korea -2,865 -2,865 -11,898 -11,980 68,412 4,787 50,950 -12,011
New Zealand -3,113 -3,113 -28,129 -27,056 83,873 75,997 31,051 11,511
Norway -2,372 -2,372 -33,342 -33,625 133,548 83,842 84,606 27,123
Poland -194 -194 -9,622 -8,202 31,601 40,648 27,137 31,933
Portugal -11 -11 -20,562 -16,867 123,842 88,143 62,570 50,158
Spain -481 -481 -5,925 -4,348 52,086 45,557 37,604 48,136
Sweden -19 -19 -19,592 -21,107 93,464 69,113 43,505 23,900
Turkey -324 -324 -10,837 -11,750 37,719 48,598 16,308 15,126
United States -2,689 -2,689 -21,168 -21,572 180,543 126,069 112,929 81,889
AVG -1,545 -1,545 -22,946 -22,002 79,713 68,104 39,840 28,223

The other interesting stat I would like to share is that ROI on a university education appears to be increasing. I know the cost of education has gone up a bit, but the earnings premium of college graduates has skyrocketed, at least in the United States. As globalization has accelerated and more manual labour jobs have been sent offshore, the gap between what a university graduate can earn and the earnings of high school graduates has opened up. Let me quote a recent report from the US College Board:

“The earnings premium for college education has increased over time:
Among men, the earnings premium for a college degree increased from 19 percent in 1975, to
37 percent in 1985, 56 percent in 1995, and 63 percent in 2005.
The earnings premium for women is larger—70 percent in 2005. It was 47 percent in 1985, but
has not increased since 1995.”

Anyway, I should get back to work….





The Atlantic on Winter Olympic Medal Counts

17 02 2010

As long time readers of this blog will know, I am a strong believer in prediction markets. I think that we should use them to set everything from drug laws to foreign policy. Prediction markets also have a pretty good track record for Olympic medal counts.

“Betfair, a British prediction market, has Germany as the 5/4 favorite for the most medals, Canada second at 12/5, and the US is third, with odds of 9/2.” Read more here.

P.S. The Atlantic article cites one economist’s calculation that the home-field advantage at the Olympics in just 1.8%. Canadians take note.

Betfair’s Vancouver Olympics Ice Hockey page is here.





Winter Olympics Medal Counts, 1900 to Present, Per Capita

17 02 2010

# 1        Liechtenstein:      266.928 per 1 million people
# 2       Norway:     57.2611 per 1 million people
# 3       Finland:     27.1874 per 1 million people
# 4       Austria:     19.7923 per 1 million people
# 5       Switzerland:     13.7535 per 1 million people
# 6       Sweden:     11.9973 per 1 million people
# 7       Luxembourg:     4.2683 per 1 million people
# 8       Netherlands:     4.20552 per 1 million people
# 9       Canada:     2.92638 per 1 million people
# 10       Estonia:     2.25056 per 1 million people

Source: Nationmaster.com

Historian Matt Hayday has some thoughts about international coverage of the Olympics in a blog post called “The Empires Snide Back“. You can read about one economist’s predictions re medal counts here.

One prediction market is suggesting that Germany will gain the largest number of medals.





Why Are Textbooks So Expensive?

17 02 2010

For an American’s answer to this question, see here. In Canada, the costs can be even higher due to the small size of our market.





Supply/Demand for Different Types of History

16 02 2010

I am very supportive of the new website ActiveHistory.ca. The point of ActiveHistory.ca is to link academic historians to the world of public policy by showing how historians’ research can be useful. Recent papers on their website include: Paul Axelrod, Universities and the Great Depression: Then and Now? and Yves Montenay, Pourquoi le Vietnam s’en tire et Cuba s’enfonce.

ActiveHistory’s Ian Milligan has published an interesting post on the mismatch between the types of history professional historians are interested in supplying and the types of history “the public” wishes to consume. There is some evidence to support Milligan’s thesis that there is a mismatch. Military history dominates the History Channel and the history shelves of the chain bookstores with which I am familiar (Chapters, Borders, Barnes and Noble, and Waterstones), yet most history departments lack specialists in military history. This is true even in the United States, which is a superpower with soldiers in more than 100 countries!  See here. (I suspect that the decision of university departments to avoid teaching of military history is pleasing to army officers, since it results in a public less capable of scrutinizing their actions and budgets). I agree with much of what Milligan is saying.

Chapters Book Store in Toronto

However, I would question some of the other claims Milligan makes in his post. Milligan begins his post by complaining that it was hard for ActiveHistory.ca to find historians capable of commenting on the recent financial crisis. He writes: “There simply aren’t many Canadian historians who study the economy anymore. This was put fairly starkly to me in a conversation with a senior historian at York University, as we went through the list of faculty that Active History might contact. There certainly were a few – and many of them are very accomplished (and busy) scholars – but you could almost count them on one hand.”

First, I would ask Milligan whether he contacted historians outside of Canada. This would make sense, given that we are talking about an international financial crisis. A specialist in Canadian economic history would be well equipped to talk about how Canadian governments have responded to past international financial crises, but to find out why financial crisis happen in the first place, it might make sense to speak to an international scholar. Moreover, we need to keep in mind that not all academics who study the past are located in history departments. There are great historians located in sociology departments, political science faculties, business schools, and women’s studies centres.  Kenneth Rogoff, a co-author of This Time It is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, is based in an economics department. Niall Ferguson, whose PhD is in history, is now cross appointed between the history department at Harvard and the Stern School of Business in New York. Last summer, Ferguson had a very public and very nasty feud with Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman about the economist prospects of the United States that was, in part, a debate about how we should interpret the Great Depression. See Ferguson’s “History Lessons for Economists in Thrall to Keynes” and Krugman’s response on his New York Times blog. The debate between Krugman and Ferguson was very nasty (it prompted one of these scholars “to deploy the nuclear weapon of American academic arguments — an accusation of racism“), but it was also an argument about different theories of economic history, so I don’t think it is fair for Milligan to say that nobody in the academy is qualified to talk about the Great Depression in historical terms!

Closer to home, the staff of ActiveHistory might have considered contacting Joe Martin, a business historian based in the Rotman School of Business at University of Toronto. Martin was interviewed on BNN on the 80th anniversary of the 1929 stock market crash about possible historical parallels with the present-day. In his interview, Martin stressed that protectionism in the United States and other countries conspired to turn a recession in the Great Depression. Martin also alluded to the fact Ben Bernanke, the current Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is an expert on the Great Depression.  (See Bernanke’s 2000 book on this topic).

Here is another problem with Milligan’s post. In discussing the mismatch between public and academic history, Milligan uses the term “public” in the singular, which is a problem for several reasons. Historical reading preferences are different in Quebec than in English-speaking Canada (you see little military history in bookstores in Quebec and lots of books on some aspect of the “national question”). I suspect that there are other, albeit more subtle, differences in the history book markets between English-speaking countries (e.g., the UK, Canada, USA).  Let’s not forget that many people get their information about the past from historical novels rather than historical non-fiction. (There may be a gender difference in buying habits here– ask Amazon for the hard data).

Moreover, no country’s public is monolithic. University-educated people will have difference preferences with regard to history than non-university educated people:  some, but not all, ordinary people equate history with the study of their immediate localities or the histories of professional sports teams. Many members of the learned professions are interested in learning something about their professions: Canadian historian Christopher Moore has published an official history of one of Canada’s biggest law firm.

Government agencies consume various types of historical knowledge (e.g., First Nations land claims research or studies on the Shiite-Sunni division in Iraq). The British website on which ActiveHistory is based (History and Policy) presents historical research on topics such as “How (not) to cut government spending and reduce public sector debt” by Glen O’Hara which are unlikely to interest the masses but which are bound to be very interesting to the key decision-makers who really matter in semi-democratic countries such as Britain or the United States or Canada (senior civil servants, central bankers, cabinet ministers).

Typical event sponsored by the Office of the Historian, United States Department of State

One mismatch between supply and demand which Milligan does not address relates to the countries chosen for study. If you at the American Historical Association data on the job market for history PhDs in the United States, you will see that there is a disparity between the types of history PhDs being produced and the national specialists that history departments need. When history departments advertise for specialists in the history of distant regions such as East Asia or Africa, there get few CVs because relatively few historians do doctorates on such countries. At the same time, there is a glut of history PhDs who have specialised in the history of the United States: the new number of new doctorates in American history produced each year is vastly greater than the number of jobs advertised in that field.

It also appears that historians in some nations are more likely to study foreign countries than the histories of their own backyards. Consider a recent book by Richard J. Evans, a specialist in German history based at Cambridge University.  In Cosmopolitan Islanders: British Historians and the European Continent, Evans shows that the curriculum of British history departments in far more international than the curriculum of history department in many European countries. In Poland or Italy, an undergraduate student in history will learn a great deal about their respective national historians and very little about the histories of foreign nations. British university departments are strong in British history, but they have plenty of specialists in the histories of other countries (Alas, as Mark Mazower  notes in his review of Evans, the curriculum is still pretty Euro-centric, an impression supported by this data on PhD thesis topics).

Historians in Canadian history departments need to give some thought as to whether or not we have achieved the right balance between Canadian history and the pasts of other countries in the undergraduate curriculum. I love the study of Canada, but I feel that I wouldn’t be able to understand Canada’s past without a good grounding in the histories of the United States and Britain. Moreover, I wish that I had learned more about the histories of non-Western countries as an undergraduate. I’m ashamed to say that my only undergraduate exposure to the history of East Asia was a seminar on 20th-century Chinese history.  Canadian history departments focus on the teaching of Canadian history because the secondary curriculum is heavy on Canadian history and the major function of a Canadian history department is to teach future high school teachers. (In Canada, all history teachers must have a BA in history).  Needless to say, as a Canadian historian living in a world of finite resources I can’t be an entirely disinterested observer of the debate about how we balance the teaching of Canadians, Western, and non-Western histories (!), but it is a debate well worth having.

P.S. If you are interested in the feud between Krugman and Ferguson, check out this video:





Input Invited on New Business History Course

15 02 2010

Next year, I will be teaching a course called HIST-3226EL Tycoons: the Making of North American Capitalism

The course is based on a history-through-biography approach to teaching. Each lecture will focus on the life and times of a particular businessperson. Their biographies will be used to show how North American capitalism evolved in a particular epoch. Important course themes include: Canadian-American relations; the rise of Big Business in the 19th century; the explosive growth of capital markets; the place of ethnic and racial minorities in capitalism; great financial disasters; the impact of break-neck technological innovation on the economy and on society;  businesses that made money from warfare; the role of business in political conflict; successful businessmen who were members of persecuted racial and religious minorities; the differences between Canadian and American political and economic culture.

Below, I have posted the list of lectures. With the exception of 10 September, every lecture is about the life and times of a particular individual. Some of these individuals are famous, but in other cases they are obscure ( I have put explanatory hyperlinks in for such cases). Anyway, I am interested in what readers of this blog think about this list of lecture topics. Is there someone really important that I need to talk about who is missing from the list? I would really appreciate your feedback at this point, as I am planning to write the actual lectures in the summer of 2010. There are only so many lectures in the course and I had to make some painful choices (for instance, I’ve had to drop the idea of doing a lecture on Andrew Mellon. I also dropped my lecture on the Black businessman A.G. Gaston).

As you can see, all of my lectures are about men. I’m a bit disappointed that I was unable to find a suitable businesswoman I could structure a lecture around.  Keep in mind, that most of my lectures have to be based on scholarly works. Moreover, this is a history course and I would not feel comfortable delivering a lecture about a middle-aged person who is still active in business (e.g., Meg Whitman). There are lots of prominent businesswomen today, but much less in the way of secondary literature on businesswomen in the period covered by my course.  So I would appreciate any suggestions readers could provide.
5 September    Introduction
Joseph Schumpeter: Prophet of Innovation
10 September    Colonial Origins of the North American Economies
12 September
Alexander Hamilton
17 September
John Molson
19 September    Sir George Simpson
24 September    Francis Cabot Lowell
26 September    Isaac Franklin,  Slave Merchant
1 October    Cornelius Vanderbilt
3 October    Luther Hamilton Holton
8 October    Sir William Christopher Macdonald
10 October    MID TERM
BOOK REVIEW DUE
15 October John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil
17 October    Sir William Mackenzie: Railway King of Canada

22 October Study Week- No Class
24 October    Study Week-No Class
29 October    Erastus Wiman and Continental Union
31 October    Alexander Graham Bell  and the Telephone Revolution
5 November Andrew Carnegie: the Gospel of Wealth
7 November    Sir Joseph Flavelle: a Canadian Millionnaire
12 November    Henry Ford vs. Alfred P. Sloan: a Study in Contrasts
14 November    Chang Toy, Kingpin of Vancouver’s Chinatown
19 November    Sam Bronfman and the House of Seagram
21 November    Paul Desmarais and Power Corp.
26 November    K.C. Irving and New Brunswick
ESSAY DUE
28 November    Ron Joyce: Master of the Donut
3 December    Sherman Fairchild and the Creation of Silicon Valley
5 December    Exam Review

TEXTBOOK
Graham D. Taylor and Peter A. Baskerville, A Concise History of Business in Canada (Toronto: Oxford University Press, 1994). ISBN-10: 0-19-540978-7
ISBN-13: 978-0-19-540978-9

SCHOLARLY BOOK TO REVIEW

Bethany Moreton, To Serve God and Wal-Mart : the Making of Christian Free Enterprise (Harvard University Press, 2009)





Is Getting a PhD in the Humanities Worth It?

15 02 2010

Check out this article by an English literature professor in the Chronicle of Higher Education.  It’s all about the highly dysfunctional state of the academic job market in the USA, particularly in the humanities. Much of what the author has to say applies to history and the other social sciences, although the situation for us social scientists is somewhat less bleak because we have more options job outside of academe (e.g., think tanks, government).

This article has sparked a lively debate on the Chronicle’s website. There is a consensus that there are lots of unemployed and under-employed humanities PhDs out there. Alas, none of these people have asked why this problem has persisted for so many years. Why hasn’t the market cleared already? Fact: there are plenty of newly minted PhDs who would be willing to teach for much less than the average full professor. Fact: there are plenty of young people who want to study humanities at university but who find the costs difficult to manage (I teach some of these students) or who complain about large class sizes. So the question arises, why haven’t these two problems cancelled each other out already?

During the Great Depression, hunger was widespread. At the same time, foodstuffs were deliberately burnt is mass quantities.  This bizarre situation is analogous to the current state of the academic job market in the humanities.

It is not all doom and gloom. In the program where I did my PhD, about half of the people who got doctorates between 1990 and 2007 eventually landed tenure-track jobs. I know that some of those who did not get tenure-track jobs did so by choice– or rather, they were unwilling to have commuting marriages or to relocate to universities in non-metropolitan areas. Check out this table— some of the information in it is woefully out of date, but it gives you a sense of what the debate is all about.